Starting with the usual disclaimer that this is a business blog, not a political blog, I find it fascinating when the political "experts" get it wrong.
Personally, at this stage of the game, with the election still eleven months away, I couldn't care less who won the New Hampshire primary. But I have to admit I love the fact that the predictors were so far off the mark.
Just in case you've been at a monastery for the last week, or cut off from the world in some other way, here's what happened. In the Democratic primary, the polls predicted that Senator Obama would win, possibly by as many as ten percentage points over Senator Clinton. But when real people cast real votes, it turned out that Clinton beat Obama by a slim margin.
The fun part is watching the pollsters trying to do damage control. They have all kinds of excuses to explain what went wrong, but the simple answer is that you can't always predict human behavior. If you could, our lives as marketers would be so much simpler.
You would never be out of anything because you could predict exactly what your customers were going to buy. You would also never be overstocked. You would never be short-handed or over-staffed because you could predict exactly when your customers were going to come in.
But we're human creatures with brains of our own, and we don't always act in a predictable way.
Granted that the poll-takers are right more often than they're wrong, it's still good to see them miss once in a while. Otherwise, there would be no reason to vote. If Gallup and friends say that candidate "A" is going to win, and if Gallup and friends are always right, what's the point of me going to the polls? If I do, why waste my vote on someone who's going to lose? I might as well go ahead and vote for "A". I know he or she's going to win. The polls said so. In that case, the predictions actually influence the outcome of the election. And that's just wrong.
But, like I said, this is a business blog, so what's my point? Well, as business people we're all students of human behavior. Our livelihoods depend on predicting what people are going to do. The better job we do, the more successful we'll be. But let's not get overconfident. If organizations like Gallup and the others, with huge budgets and squads of so-called experts, can be as wrong as they were in New Hampshire, it's pretty clear that we're not going to be right anywhere near 100% of the time.
That's where the creativity and the agility of the independent retailer give him/her an advantage. When that widget that we thought would sell like crazy is still sitting on the shelves, we adjust. Lower the price. Create a value-added package. Change the display.
When everybody suddenly wants the latest and greatest and we didn't buy any because we didn't think they would sell, then we have to sell them something else. Unlike the pollsters, we're not paid to make mistakes.